We’re now down to little more than two months before school starts in most of the country and a great many districts, if not necessarily most, are yet to announce definitive plans for how they are going to conduct school in the Fall semester. Indeed, the entire subject of school closures and openings is another example of a country trapped in magical thinking, yet another permutation of the “reopening” debate.
How do you prevent your home from flooding? The biggest thing is to make sure there’s no flood near your house. Fix the levees or the dam. If you don’t, your house is going to be toast no matter what clever ideas or plans you come up with. We’ve seen from other parts of the world that you can reopen schools. But it’s not a matter of any particularly clever strategies. It’s just something that becomes possible once the prevalence of the disease gets really low. And it doesn’t ‘get’ low. You make it low.
The clear lesson from Europe and East Asia is that you need to get the prevalence of COVID down really, really low. Once you’ve done that lots of things become possible. People in those countries are still doing mitigation and wearing masks and social distancing. But they’ve been able to resume a reasonable level of social and economic life because they got cases really, really low. Like I said, if the water is ten feet deep on your street, you’re going to need to get a new house.
Here we’ve been focused on these absurd “reopening” debates that are both highly politicized and highly hypothetical while the actual case counts are exploding in much of the country. Can we have schools open in September? It’s an entirely moot point unless you have cases low enough that you’re not contending with having to do another total shutdown.
From start to first we’ve treated ‘reopening’ as a parlor game or political conflict or a subject for debate as opposed to something you start doing once you’ve wrestled the disease into some kind of submission. And that is quite simply a joke.